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VIRTUAL MONEY
While the hope that governments will practice self-discipline is fantasy, the global economy imposes new and more severe restraints on government. It is forcing government back into fiscal responsibility. Floating exchange rates have created extreme currency instability, which in turn has created an enormous mass of "world money." This money has no existence outside the global economy and its main money markets. It is not being created by economic activity like investment, production, consumption, or trade. It is created primarily by currency trading. It fits none of the traditional definitions of money, whether standard of measurement, storage of value, or medium of exchange. It is totally anonymous. It is virtual rather than real money.
But its power is real. The volume of world money is so gigantic that its movements in and out of a currency have far greater impact than the flows of financing, trade, or investment. In one day, as much of this virtual money may be traded as the entire world needs to finance trade and investment for a year. This virtual money has total mobility because it serves no economic function. Billions of it can be switched from one currency to another by a trader pushing a few buttons on a keyboard. And because it serves no economic function and finances nothing, this money also does not follow economic logic or rationality. It is volatile and easily panicked by a rumor or unexpected event.
One example is the run on the dollar in the spring of 1995, which forced President Clinton to abandon his earlier spending plans and embrace a balanced budget. The run was triggered by the failure of the Republican majority in the Senate to pass a constitutional amendment calling for a balanced budget. Even if the amendment had passed, it would have been meaningless. It was riddled with loopholes and required ratification by 38 states to become law, which at best would have taken many years. But the world's currency traders panicked and started a run on the U.S. dollar. Already undervalued 10 percent against the Japanese yen, the run pushed the dollar down another 25 percent -- from 106 yen to the dollar to less than 80 -- in two weeks. More important, the run caused the near-collapse of the U.S. bond market, on which the United States depends to finance its deficits. The central banks of the United States, England, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, and France instantly swung into concerted action to support the dollar. They failed, losing billions in the attempt. It took the dollar the better part of a year to climb back to its original (still undervalued) exchange rate.